Monday, November 28, 2011

Wall Street CEO confronts "Occupy Wall Street" - CBS News Video

Wall Street CEO confronts "Occupy Wall Street" - CBS News Video

I wrote this response for a friend who wanted my perspective on what he's saying.
My response to the above video:


Bear in mind that he is a brilliant man arguing with kids.  I’ve seen folks on CNBC argue the other side much more eloquently.

I’ve seen Mr. Schiff a lot on CNBC.  He’s a capital & markets purist.  So, for instance, when he talks about the fact that true capitalism would have let the banks fail, he’s right.  The value judgment we have to make in that regard concerns pain management.  When we intervened in the banks, we were making a value judgment that we would incur a chronic, extended pain that was less severe and traumatic, rather than the large and explosive pain that would be much more unpredictable in terms of the result.

If we’d let the banks fail, it might have been a spike in unemployment to 18% - 20%, followed by a rapid recovery back to 4-6%, and we’d already be done with it by now. 

OR, it might have been an abyss that we fell into, world markets might have collapsed utterly, and we would now see mass starvation at home and abroad and be well on our way to WWIII.  That’s the risk reward scenario.  I’ll let you decide whether or not you agree with the approach that was taken, but bear in mind that the only historical precedence we have is the 20’s and 30’s, and that letting the markets work themselves out at that time, as Mr. Schiff proposes, lead to both the great depression and, subsequently, WWII.  Lots of prolonged, intense pain.

He’s spot-on about student loans.  No argument from me there.  It is essentially the same problem we have with health-care.  We have this intervening third party with deep pockets who is propping up the costs.  We need either true socialism or to allow the free market forces to do what they do well, which is set prices.  Either would work well if it’s done well.

Mr. Schiff’s underlying premise in many of his arguments is that markets are efficient and self-regulating, so we don’t need the gov’t mucking around. 

In my opinion, whether or not that is true depends on the goals of the markets.  Markets are great for setting prices for goods and services and creating wealth for those who have capital to invest.    However, markets are A-MORAL.  I could give example after example of this, but the easiest is the one sighted in the video, which is the slave market.  Mr. Schiff doesn’t seem to grasp that the slave market was a functioning market with capital, goods and services, communications of raw materials, supply, demand, the whole shebang.  And, it set cost of goods sold (slaves) and created wealth for slave-traders and plantation owners very efficiently.  That was absolutely the free market at work.  And it was absolutely evil, and required government intervention.

And that’s really the fundamental point that I should try to communicate.  Markets ARE fairly efficient at setting prices for goods and services.  However, I cannot find one historical example of a market behaving in a moral fashion.  They make money, period, whether it’s on orange fruit from Florida or black people from Africa.

And that’s why we need regulation.  To give markets a moral compass.  We need government to allow YOU AND ME the power to make markets behave in a moral fashion, through our elected representatives.

And, sometimes, the need for regulation is not moral, but entirely practical.  In an example that Mr. Schiff should be familiar with, one of the major factorsfor the recent banking collapse was the deregulation of the industry.  (In a rare instance, government and the private sector worked together to make a mess of this.  Both are to blame.) The Glass-Steagall act (the laws enacted after the great depression designed to prevent its recurrence) was repealed, and about 10 years later we have what almost amounted to another great depression.  You can Google it if you want to learn more, but in essence it created a separation between depository banks and investment banks, making sure that the gamblers (investment banks) aren’t gambling with your deposits or easy federal money they’ve borrowed at low interest.

His point about the 50’s is, at best, a fantastic over-simplification.  I frankly think it’s just false.  He states that we were fantastically successful in the 50’s because we had more capital, which was because we had lower taxes and fewer regulations.  I would point out the following:
-          The top marginal tax rate in the 50’s was 91%, as opposed to 35% currently.  The capital gains tax rate (which has a great impact on the wealthy) was %25 as opposed to the current 15% .  So, not sure why he thinks we had lower taxes.
-          I’m sure we currently have more regulation than we did in the 50’s, but do you really want to go back to a time when we were poisoning ourselves with DDT & Mercury, and you could light the Hudson River on fire because it was so polluted?
-          I BELIEVE that Unions (ie – labor) were much stronger in the 50’s than they are today.  I won’t assert that, though, I just have that impression.
-          In the 50’s, we were the only world power left standing after WW2.  England was bankrupt, Germany & Japan were in ashes, as was the rest of Europe.  Much of the rest of the world was not yet industrialized.  We were the only show in town.  We were LITERALLY the only county producing anything.  So, yeah, we did pretty well.
So, I think that’s crazy-talk.

The “Why don’t they quit” comment in reference to wall mart employees is a common refrain.  Again, those arguing against him were inarticulate.   This response is getting long, and I think this is one of the less important points, so I’m skipping it ;-)>

The point his opponent is making about apple is a really good one, but again his opponent is inarticulate.  We could lower apple’s corporate tax rate to 0, and they would not bring manufacturing of the iphone back to the US.  It is a product that they sell at a premium (it’s expensive), making a fantastic profit.  When last I checked, Apple actually had more cash reserves than the US Federal gov’t.  (that was sometime last year, don’t know if it’s still true).  So, what can we see from this?
Apple has the money to create American jobs and still be fantastically profitable, but they don’t.  Instead, they amass a huge pile of cash. 
What we have to accept is that a worker is a necessary evil to a company or business owner.  Job creators don’t create jobs because they have a passion for creating jobs, they create jobs because they have to in order to make their millions.  I don’t know a single one that would have workers if they didn’t have to. 

Which brings be to the last point I’ll make.  You can tell, in several of his comments, that he things that the fact that he’s made a huge pile of money gives him some sort of great credibility.  Does it?  Is that the goal of our civilization?  If so, then guys like him should set the tone.  If not, we need to look elsewhere.

And, on last note on the fundamental question of capitalism vs socialism – who should benefit from my labor, the guy who owns the capital, or me, and how much wealth should one person accumulate? Mr. Schiff correctly states that he’s created many jobs, and that he worked very hard.  I guarantee that many of his employees also worked very hard (I’ve certainly put in 20 hours days as well, although I control no wealth to speak of), and that he profited disproportionately from their labor.  This is a value judgment –who you think should profit most from your labor?  In my view, there needs to be a balance.  Let people who want to get wealthy get wealthy, but let them do it in an honest way, and let them pay a living wage to their workers.

I couldn’t watch past about the 10 minute mark.  Can’t stand to listen to people screaming at each other. J

Hope this helps you see the other side’s perspective a bit better. Sorry it’s so long.

And now, since I’m typing, to pontificate:
It’s all about balance, and in my opinion, we’re way out of balance to the right.  This is evidenced in Obama-care.  This is the same bill, essentially, that was the republican alternative to Hillary care in the 90’s, and today it’s socialism.  Or cap and trade, which Bush 41 was brilliantly successful in using as a free market system to end acid rain.  But when Obama proposes this tried and true republican solution, he’s killing jobs and destroying the free markets?  We’re so far to the right that the right doesn’t even realize how far to the right the left is.  The American people voted for a liberal government and got a 90’s era conservative government, and the 2000’s era conservatives still manage to paint him as a socialist and extremist.  That genuinely frightens me, because I really do believe that wisdom will generally lie in balance.

 


Saturday, November 12, 2011

One more reason to hate Windows 7

So, there is a service that I often need to restart.  I don't like pointing and clicking, so I'll run cmd and then type net start | find /I "cisco" to get the name.  Then I'll pipe that to net stop and net start.  Or, I USED to do that.
Now, when i try to do it, I learn that access is denied, even though I am logged in as a local admin.

OK - so, where's the SUDO equivalent that will let me run this command as an administrator when i'm, you know, administrating.

Grrrrrr...

Friday, November 11, 2011

Veterans Day


I know it sounds crazy, but I struggle with veterans’ day. 
Several of my closest friends are vets, some still serving.  I watch people post poems or pictures or thank-you’s, and honestly, it gives me a lump of anger in the pit of my stomach.  We sit here, comfortably, doing nothing to make their lot better, watching as their lives are squandered, but it’s all good because we stand up at the parade when the old folks pass with the flags.
We have failed our soldiers.  They’ve gone off and been great soldiers, while we have sat here and been absolutely wretched citizens.   We owe our soldiers an apology.  I’ll start.
I’m sorry for not raising a bigger stink when we were getting involved in Iraq. Honestly, I thought it was saber rattling and wouldn’t really happen, but that’s no excuse.  I knew it was stupid, and I let myself be shouted down and intimidated.
I’m sorry that you have been deployed 3 and 4 times.  I’m sorry that you get panic attacks and have PTSD.  I’m sorry that your marriage is on the rocks and for the way the people you love are suffering with you.
I’m sorry that your deployments get longer, and that you’ve been called back even after you thought you were out.
I’m sorry that the recruiter wasn’t forthright with you, and that you aren’t doing what you thought you’d be doing when you signed up. 
I’m sorry that I go to movies and watch football and don’t even have to so much as pay higher taxes while you suffer in this way, much less have to share your burden through a draft or rationing.
I’m sorry that I haven’t been strong enough in voicing my opinion, as a citizen that you protect, to assure you are not abused or taken advantage of.

Monday, October 03, 2011

Fear

My relationship with Fear has never been casual; a brush in a hallway or a brief and superficial encounter in the midst of my comings and goings.  No, Fear knows my every thought, my every habit, my every weakness.  Long, now, I have been intimate with Fear.
As a child, Fear would visit my room in the depths of the night, unbidden and unwelcome.  Fear lay heavy upon me, crushing my breath, pinning my limbs, shattering my thoughts.
Fear has rode with me as I traveled, squeezing my chest between its mighty arms, making my head spin and my thoughts abandon me.
Fear has sat with me, alone in my home, its whispered lies seducing me, as I lay down before it and try only to remain conscious, crying out to God that, if Death would come, let it be now.
Though I try do disbelieve it, Fear is persistent, insistent, incessant, relentless.  At length, my defenses made weak, its lies win the day, and I believe.

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

El-Erian: U.S. Outlook Darkens

El-Erian: U.S. Outlook Darkens

This guy's pretty sharp.  I always try to listen when he's talking.  He paints a picture that I'm not happy to hear.
People, both foreign and domestic, are in cash because of uncertainties and valuations that were artificially inflated by QE2 and don't reflect the realities.

Additionally, we are in a debt overhang that has the following characteristics:

1 - Unusually sluggish growth on advanced economies, partiularly those that rely on financial services industry
2 - persistently high unemployment that eventually becomes structural and embedded in the system
3 - Regulatory response that raises uncertainties.
4 - Recurrent balance sheet issues.  Formerly clean balance sheets will become troublesome.

Possible solutions to debt-overhang for a government are:
1 - Impose austerity.
2 - restructure debt
3 - inflate their way out of the problem
4 - impose financial repression (tell creditors to go jump in a lake)

UK opted for austerity.  US is using financial repression.  Greece did almost all of the above.

An unusual convergence between emerging and developed markets.  The wealth gap will narrow as they get richer and we get poorer.

Europe lurching from crisis to crisis.  It has structural problems and problems with execution.  Needs to be broken up or truly consolidated.  They're in a 'tweener.

We need a sputnik moment in the US.  There is currently no credible approach for removing structural impediments.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Find the CD Key. Wow. That was easy.

http://ehacks.wordpress.com/2008/01/11/how-to-find-your-windows-xp-product-key-on-the-windows-xp-cd/


How-To: Find Windows XP Product Key from the Windows XP CD:
1) Insert Windows XP cd into a working computer.
2) Exit the Autorun introduction.
3) Open “My Computer”
4) Right Click on the Windows XP cd-rom drive and select explore.
5) Open the USWXP32P_ZX folder. (It may be as a hidden folder. If you cannot locate the folder, you may also search for unattend.txt and mark “Search Hidden Files”.)
6) Open the sysprep folder.
7) Open unattend.txt
Your CD’s product key is contained within the unattend.txt file.

UBCD4WIN bootable windows xp recovery

Wonderful system recovery application.
Contains bootable windows xp cd, as well as a plethora of anti-virus and anti-spyware tools.
Absolutely amazing :-)

Get Restart log using PowerShell

I'm often curious about a restart on a Windows server system. An easy way to get a list of the restart and what initiated it is to use t...